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FROM THIS EPISODE

Polls are tightening. What happened? According to the FiveThirtyEight Election Forecast, Donald Trump has a 40 percent chance of winning in November, that's up from 12 percent in August. How worried should Hillary Clinton supporters be and what caused the shift? Keli Goff says the numbers are vastly under-counting how angry people of color are and how much they will show up at the polls. Trump finally admitted that Barack Obama was born in the United States. Instead of apologizing, he falsely claimed Hillary Clinton started the rumor. Trump proposed childcare subsidies and maternity leave plans. Josh Barro says the child-care subsidies would be very expensive and would go disproportionately to high income households, while the maternity plan is more affordable, in part because the benefits are quite stingy. Ivanka Trump has a tough interview with Cosmopolitan.

Josh Barro (Business Insider) moderates from the Center. Rich Lowry (National Review) is on the Right. On the Left, Matthew Yglesias (Vox). Keli Goff (Daily Beast, host of WNYC's series, Political Party with Keli Goff) is our special guest.

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