American Enterprise Institute
Resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and senior lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School, he teaches Iranian history at Johns Hopkins University; co-author of Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos and author of Dancing with the Devil: A History of US Diplomacy with Rogue Regimes
The Deal is Done, but the Battle Is Just Beginning President Obama says the deal with Iran has made the world safer by stopping the spread of nuclear weapons in the volatile Middle East. Secretary of State John Kerry has staked his 30-year public career on the success the negotiations. Presuming that the UN goes along, Congress now has 60 days to approve or reject the accord — as well as the lifting of US sanctions. Republicans, including House Speaker John Boehner , agree with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the deal is "a historic mistake." Some Democrats are skeptical, too. They worry that Iran can't be trusted, but the President invoked a phrase made famous by Ronald Reagan, "This deal is not built on trust. It's built on verification." We look at the details and the prospects of a struggle with global significance between the White House and Congress.
A Moment of Opportunity in US-Iranian Relations? America's rapprochement with Cuba has changed international diplomacy and domestic politics. Could Iran be next? President Obama recently told NPR that Iran has "incredible talent and resources and sophistication" — if it could "break through its isolation." President Hassan Rouhani recently took on his country's hardliners in a speech of "jaw-dropping boldness." That has some diplomats and reporters talking about a nuclear deal that could be a game-changer. Is that wishful thinking? Would Congress and America's allies, including Israel, find it unacceptable?
Is the U.S. Doubling Down in Iraq? In 2011, President Obama withdrew US combat forces, hoping to see the last of American involvement in Iraq. Now, he’s authorized US airstrikes against the expanding forces of the Islamic State. Is the U.S. doubling down in Iraq?
Will Iraq Become a Divided Country? In Baghdad today, 44 Sunni prisoners in a government-controlled police station were killed — apparently in retaliation for advances by Sunni extremists with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. As forces of ISIS get closer to Baghdad, it appears that Iraq's current leadership might not hold the country together. The unlikely alliance of Iran and the US is urging political unity instead of sectarian warfare, but they're being ignored by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. Others insist that Iraq never was a real country, and that division between Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds is inevitable. Will the current chaos lead to a re-drawing of national boundaries imposed by European colonial powers 100 years ago?
Can the US Salvage a Deal with Iran? Diplomacy over Iran's nuclear program is not dead yet, but when talks resume next week foreign ministers will be replaced by lesser officials. Secretary of State John Kerry and Iran's Mohammad Zarif have each blamed the other for the failure of an anticipated agreement over the weekend. But France — and especially Israel — helped scuttle a deal, with hawks in both parties in Congress happy to see a delay. We hear what's at stake for the many parties involved, with the prospect of military action if diplomacy fails.
Change in Iran: Is it Real or Wishful Thinking? Hassan Rouhani will succeed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as President of Iran -- an election outcome considered a slap in the face of the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who handpicked several candidates for the race to succeed the abrasive Ahmadinejad. But Khamenei is still the Supreme Leader, and he could prevent Rouhani from keeping the promises that led to his surprising victory. Will Iranians see an improved economy? Will the US and Israel see proof that Iran's nuclear program is designed for energy rather than weapons? We hear from optimists and skeptics about whether the power brokers will accept political change.
The Crisis in Egypt: Where Does the US Stand Now? Protests are spreading in Cairo and other cities. Workers have gone on strike—but it’s not clear if they share the goal of regime change. Do American ideals conflict with economic and political interests? Does US ambivalence demonstrate strength or fading influence in the Middle East? As the crisis in Egypt continues, can President Obama strike a balance between America’s ideal of democracy and the demands of political reality?
America Leaves Iraq: Is the Mission Accomplished at Last? President Obama did not say "mission accomplished," but he did say yesterday that all combat operations in Iraq will end this month, as he promised. Fifty thousand American troops will remain, but the State Department will lead what's become a civilian effort, using the biggest embassy in the world. But Iraq has no permanent government. There's disagreement over how much violence has really declined and fears it will increase when US troops are gone. Is the US still relevant? What about Iran? How do Iraqis feel about America's role, and what's the future for five million displaced people?
Dissecting the Iran Memo President Obama has tried diplomacy, but yesterday Iran announced that it's starting work on a new plant to enrich uranium. The President's fallback strategy is getting the United Nations to step up sanctions designed to prevent Iran from "reaching the threshold." That means developing the capacity to build a nuclear bomb. But what if that doesn't work? Sunday's New York Times revealed a Top Secret three-page memo from Defense Secretary Robert Gates saying the US does not have an effective long-range policy.
Dissecting the Iran Memo Diplomacy's at a standstill, so President Obama is pushing for UN sanctions to prevent Iran from learning how to build an atomic bomb. What if that doesn't work? In a secret three-page memo leaked to the New York Times , Defense Secretary Robert Gates himself says there is no plan, no effective long-range policy. Would sanctions impacting the whole population turn Iranians against their Islamic leaders? Are there other ways to accomplish regime change? If the US can't take military action, what about Israel? Is there any realistic alternative to living with an Iran that has mastered nuclear technology?
The Iraqi People Have Voted Again: What's Next? Nineteen million people were eligible to vote for 6200 candidates nationwide with 325 parliamentary seats at stake. Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission says 62% turned out nationwide in yesterday’s election -- 61% in the Sunni province of Anbar and 80% of the Kurds. In Baghda, though, only 51% went to the polls.
The Iraqi People Have Voted Again: What's Next? Nineteen million people were eligible to vote yesterday for 6200 candidates nationwide with 325 parliamentary seats at stake. Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission says 62% turned out nationwide, despite rocket and mortar attacks that killed 38 people in Baghdad: 61% in the Sunni province of Anbar and 80% of the Kurds. It'll be days until the results are in and probably months until a new government can formed. But already there's talk of the impact on US withdrawal. Will a new leader be able to maintain democracy? Will there be a dictatorship or an attempted coup? Will Iran gain even more influence as the US pulls away?
Protests Smaller but Still Alive in Iran It appears that at least 20 demonstrators were killed Saturday on the streets of Iran in clashes with police and militias in civilian clothes. After a quieter Sunday, protesters in Tehran faced police and militia again today. Their numbers were much reduced, but there's no doubt that dissention runs deep and wide, including a split among clerics in Iran's ruling elite. We update today's developments, assess the strength of the regime, and find out how other countries are responding. Should President Obama give the protesters solid US support, or would that threaten their legitimacy and even endanger their lives?
Terrorism and tweets, hate speech and murder Just days before an election, Britain is coping with a rash of deadly terrorism, and Prime Minister Theresa May is on the defensive. And again today, President Trump has tweeted criticism of the Mayor of London. Later, a double murder in Portland, Oregon has revealed the ugly past of a supposedly “progressive” city. One immediate question: is “hate speech” protected by the First Amendment?
Is the threat from Russia missing from the Russia meddling probe? There's much being made about the Trump administration's possible ties with Russia. But the bottom line is Russia's effort to influence American democracy. Do the President and his aides care enough to take action before voters go back to the polls?
President Trump: US to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord Trump says he was elected to serve Pittsburgh, not Paris.
Trump plays scolder-in-chief with NATO allies At the opening of NATO’s dramatic new headquarters in Brussels today, President Trump acknowledged that Article 5 — promising that “an attack on one nation is an attack on all” -- has only been invoked one time: in the aftermath of September 11. But the President failed to provide what 27 other Alliance members have been waiting for: a re-commitment by America’s new leader to Article 5. Instead, they got a scolding.
