FROM Sam Wang
New evidence of excitement with only a day to go Some Red and Blue states may be turning purple in an increasingly polarized nation. Early voting and absentee ballots provide tea leaves for prognosticators, but there's still no consensus, despite what may be the largest turnout in history. It's not just the White House. Control of the Senate is also at stake. Incumbent Republicans have sent mixed messages about Donald Trump, while Democrats are working closely with Hillary Clinton's campaign. Massive turnout by Latinos could be crucial in several states. And the FBI is involved as never before. We have a round up.
Confused by political polling? You're not alone. On the average, national polls show that Hillary Clinton will likely defeat Donald Trump in next month's election. Trump's response is familiar. "They are phony polls put out by phony media and I'll tell you what all of us are affected by this stuff and what they do they try and suppress the vote that way people don't go out and vote but we're winning this race. I really believe we are winning" But, from time to time, polls show Trump doing better. Some news media report there's a close race, and Trump can claim he'll be the eventual winner. So how's a prospective voter to know how the election is really going? Is political polling an art or a science? We talk to some leading practitioners about how they come up with numbers that can influence the ultimate outcome — whether they're right or wrong.
Are Polls Trumping Political Reality? In a speech in South Carolina today, Donald Trump gave out the personal cell phone of Lindsay Graham, that state's US Senator and a fellow candidate for President. Trump also called Graham a "lightweight" and "an idiot." The Des Moines Register's editorial board has called Trump a "feckless blowhard" and asked him to drop out of the presidential primary. Today's Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Trump leading the field of 16 candidates—with 24%, the biggest showing any candidate has made so far this year. Yet the same survey shows that Republicans don't share Trump's views — even on immigration — and 54% say he doesn't reflect Republican values. Other surveys show the same contradiction. Is it all about saturation news coverage, or is something wrong with the polls? The question's especially important this year when the first debate will include only the ten candidates with the biggest numbers.
Gerrymandering and Political Gridlock on Capitol Hill Republicans warned about voter fraud in last year's elections, while Democrats said the big threat to a fair outcome was voter ID. But the real crime was gerrymandering, the re-drawing of Congressional district boundaries so that Republicans got a much bigger majority than they deserved. That's according to a Princeton scientist who wants the task of reapportionment every ten years transferred from state legislatures to independent commissions. Are the Red States of the South less Red than they appear to be? Is gerrymandering the reason Congress can't get anything done?
The Race is Even and the Stakes are High There's a lot at stake in tomorrow's election but, despite the claims of campaigns for the presidency and other national offices, the results are unlikely to bring about much immediate change.
The Race Is Even and the Stakes Are High Both parties claim they'll take the nation in different directions, but Washington gridlock will likely continue whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney is in the White House. But this could still be a "milestone election” as Democrats and Republicans strive to build new coalitions in a racially changing nation. In the meantime, national polls show the race for the White House is neck and neck, while polls of battleground states make Obama the favorite. We look at ground game established five years ago and the mathematics of the Electoral College.
Future of the Palestinians as Trump welcomes Abbas President Trump says there's "no reason there can't be peace" between Israel and the Palestinians… but the first step will have to be unity between the West Bank and Gaza. Are the Palestinian Authority and Hamas any closer to speaking with one voice?
Trump's intelligence disclosures cause chaos On the eve of departure for his first trip overseas, President Trump is embroiled in another controversy. It's about reports that he shared highly classified information with two high-ranking Russians.
Trump, the GOP and the rule of law Conservatives — and some Republicans — are criticizing the President for "the mess he made" in firing FBI Director James Comey. We hear about a potential successor, the possibility of "obstruction of justice" and the constitutional separation of powers.
Trump fires FBI Director James Comey Vice President Mike Pence took the Administration's lead today in explaining why the President fired the Head of the FBI, saying, "The president made the right decision at the right time." Trump's action is being compared to the so-called "Saturday Night Massacre" that led to President Richard Nixon's resignation in 1973.