It's impossible to predict the future, but humans can't help themselves. From the economy to the presidency to the Super Bowl, educated and intelligent people promise insight yet repeatedly fail by wide margins. These misses go unpunished, both publicly and in our brains, which have become trained to ignore the record of those who make predictions. In this hour, we dream of the day when the accuracy rate of pundits appears next to their faces on TV, and when the weather man who botched the 10-day forecast by 20 degrees has to make his next appearance soaking wet. We also look at the deep roots of divining what tomorrow brings, from religion to new understandings of how we make these decisions. Finally, we look at the kings of prediction – those who risk modeling the future and make millions.
Can We Stop Predicting the Future?
Stephen J. Dubner