At 7:30 tonight, Iowa Democrats will begin to caucus; Republicans gather at 8. Predicted temperature: 24°. Predicted outcome: uncertain in both parties. The latest tracking poll by John Zogby for Reuters shows Obama with 31% of likely Democratic caucus goers, Edwards with 27 and Clinton with 24. Huckabee leads Romney 31 to 25. Can you believe it? Peter Nicholas is in frozen Iowa for the Los Angeles Times.