Presidential Election Forecasting and the Economy

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"Bush and Kerry--Does It Matter?" That's a headline in this week's Los Angeles Business Journal, which begins by saying, "Wall Street is confused. So is Main Street." When it comes to presidential elections, most companies give to both sides, but despite conventional wisdom, business is divided about this year's presidential campaign. Wal-Mart, Fox, Verizon and Yahoo are backing Bush, while Costco, CBS, AT&T; and Google put their money on Kerry. While presidents may or not have the power to affect the economy, the economy can be a useful tool for predicting presidential elections. Warren Olney speaks with finance and the economic reporter Kate Berry and economist Ray Fair, who uses growth and inflation data to make his forecasts.
  • Making News: Sacramento's End-of-Legislative-Session Frenzy
    Bills on the minimum wage, prescriptions drugs, and illegal immigration are making news, not in Washington but in Sacramento, where Democrats are about to force some tough decisions on Governor Schwarzenegger. Bob Sallady, who reports from the Capitol for the LA Times, considers several of the issues and their likely resolution.
  • Reporter's Notebook: Local Zoos Vaccinate Birds against West Nile Virus
    West Nile disease is a problem for human beings, but it's a lot worse for birds. So, special precautions are under way at the LA Zoo, where Susie Kasielke is the curator of birds. With no vaccine tailored specifically for avians, Kasielke explains the delegate task of catching the birds and injecting them with the only vaccine readily available, a horse vaccine.

Fair's presidential vote equation

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) on West Nile Virus

CDC on new DNA vaccine for West Nile Virus infection in fish crows



Warren Olney


Frances Anderton