Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast
Senior Economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast
PROFILE
David Shulman
Guest
FROM David Shulman
To the Point
A Recession on the Horizon? In the past few days, the word "recession" has worked its way out of the business sections onto the front pages of newspapers and the covers of magazines. "Everyone knows…another recession is inevitable sooner or later. Some indicators now suggest that it might be sooner." The New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times are headlining stories about a coming recession. Back in August, the Economist asked, does America need one? The sub-prime mortgage crisis and the end of easy credit are putting a damper on consumer spending, which has been driving the economy. Does that mean recession's inevitable? Could it be stopped or at least postponed? Would there be benefits to getting it over with sooner rather than later?
To the Point
Economy Sheds Jobs in First Downturn in Four Years Economists expected some slowdown in the economy because of the turmoil in the mortgage and housing markets, but the news this morning was far worse than expected. The Labor Department said that job growth had not just slowed, but reversed course in August for the first time in four years. The country lost 4,000 jobs. The stock market swooned. Is a recession looming? David Shulman is a senior economist with the UCLA Anderson Forecast.
To the Point
Home Loans and Easy Money, until Times Get Hard No less an authority than Alan Greenspan, former Chair of the Federal Reserve , called sub-prime mortgages a tool for democratizing credit. Sub-prime mortgages with no down payments are advertised as the road to home ownership for families who can't afford regular loans. They often gamble that they'll be able to re-finance after the house goes up in value, but before new interest rates and higher payments kick in. Now, with the housing market is cooling off, the formula is failing to work for more and more people. Foreclosures are up and they're likely to increase even more. Did stock analysts paint an overly rosy picture of the sub-prime mortgage market to generate investment? Do risky loans to millions of vulnerable borrowers threaten the whole economy? We hear from economists, consumer advocates, a state official who's going after shady lending practices, and John and Delia, two homeowners caught in the sub-prime squeeze.
Recommended
To the Point
The Voting is Over, but the Campaign Continues Women had a major impact on the midterm elections. So did $5 billion in campaign spending. Meantime, Democrats now lead the House while Republicans dominate the Senate, and the politics of division continues on Capitol Hill. We’ll hear how former House Speaker Newt Gingrich helped start an era of gridlock and perpetual campaigning.
The Mixer
California catastrophe The fires rage on in our own backyard, and in Northern California, encompassing tens of thousands of acres each. In L-A and Ventura Counties, the Woolsey Fire has scorched everything in its path. To the north, in Butte County, the Camp Fire has charred and destroyed even more acreage, of trees, brush and everything else, north of Sacramento, and the town of Paradise is a scene of utter devastation and heartbreak.
The 805
Who will get displaced by a new Santa Barbara police station? The city of Santa Barbara says it needs a new police station, but building one means displacing either farmers or lawn bowlers. The Woolsey has not only destroyed hundreds of homes and forced thousands of people to evacuate, but it’s displaced a diverse mix of wildlife. And a new contemporary art exhibition takes a deep dive into the most famous art heists in history.