UCLA / New York Times
Professor of Political Science at UCLA and a contributor to the New York Times’ news and data project, The Upshot; co-author of The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election
PROFILE
Lynn Vavreck
Guest
FROM Lynn Vavreck
To the Point
Presidential Campaign: It's the "Woman's Card" v. the "Man's Card" Hillary Clinton would be America's first woman president, and Donald Trump isn't hesitating to use that against her. He's told voters, "To be frank, if Hillary were a man I don't think she'd get 5% of the vote. All she has is playing the woman's card. And the beautiful thing is – women don't like her, OK?" The Clinton campaign says, bring it on — believing the so-called "Woman's Card" can only work in her favor. "If supporting healthcare for women, and equal pay… is playing the 'woman's card' then deal me in!" But research shows that playing the "Man's Card" could mean votes for Donald Trump. Do insults to women just come off the top of his head, or are they part of a calculated campaign strategy?
Press Play with Madeleine Brand
Do the Candidates Need to Change their Messaging for California Voters? Donald Trump and the other two Republican candidates were in California over the weekend. In a speech at the GOP convention, Ted Cruz tailored his message to California Republicans by talking about the Delta smelt and the state’s tough environmental regulations. But, nationally, the candidates’ messaging has consistently included criticisms of President Obama’s economic policies. But in California, the unemployment rate is only 5.4 percent and the state’s economy is expected to grow faster than the national economy this year. So does messaging on a trainwreck economy that’s worked so well elsewhere in the country land with California audiences?
To the Point
Insiders and Outsiders in the Race to the White House Ten candidates – the amateurs versus the pros -- made it to the main stage last night for the third Republican presidential debate hosted by CNBC in Boulder, Colorado. Dr. Ben Carson, Donald Trump and Carly Fiorina have never held public office, but they've led — and she has surged — in public opinion polls. Governors and Senators — past and present — are scrambling with new urgency for support of the rank and file—and political funders. We hear some of last night's points of conflict and identify issues that could make a difference. With not a single vote to be cast for 90 days, what do we really know about a race still crowded with horses?
To the Point
In This Year’s Mid-Term Elections, It’s Big Money versus Big Money The US Supreme Court has taken the lid off campaign spending limits. Super PAC’s can spend as much as they want to. The result is that almost $4 billion will have been spent on campaigns for the Senate and Congress by the time the voting is over. Some races aren’t even controlled by the candidates any more. The real players are big spending “outsiders, ”some of whom can contribute in secret. And it turns out that Democrats are so much a party of rich donors they’re sometimes beating Republicans at their own game. But, while everybody says they hate being inundated by TV spots, most voters learn what they know from political advertising.
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To the Point
Trump plays scolder-in-chief with NATO allies At the opening of NATO’s dramatic new headquarters in Brussels today, President Trump acknowledged that Article 5 — promising that “an attack on one nation is an attack on all” -- has only been invoked one time: in the aftermath of September 11. But the President failed to provide what 27 other Alliance members have been waiting for: a re-commitment by America’s new leader to Article 5. Instead, they got a scolding.
To the Point
Ex-FBI Director Comey tells his side of the story Today, former FBI Director James Comey came close to calling the President who fired him a liar. The White House denied the claim and called it insulting, but Republican Senators did not challenge Comey’s truthfulness. Many questions remain: did the President try to obstruct a federal investigation? Later, we’ll go behind the “velvet rope” for a look at 5-Star health care for the richest Americans.
To the Point
The longest US war: Will Trump send more troops to Afghanistan? The Trump White House is divided over the Pentagon's request for more troops in Afghanistan—where the US has been fighting for the past 16 years. Is there a formula -- either for "victory" or a political settlement? Is there an end in sight for America's longest war?
To the Point
Human Rights in the era of Donald Trump President Trump’s UN Ambassador, Nikki Haley, said today the US might pull out of the United Nations’ Human Rights Council. Serious violators of human rights are members of the Council itself–and a US resignation could make things worse. Later on today’s show, now that he’s into his second term, comedian turned US Senator Al Franken is telling jokes again.