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North Star Opinion Research
President of North Star Opinion Research, a Republican polling firm based Alexandria, Virginia; author of 2016 and Beyond: How Republicans Can Elect a President in the New America
PROFILE
Whit Ayres
Guest
FROM Whit Ayres
To the Point
Confused by political polling? You're not alone. On the average, national polls show that Hillary Clinton will likely defeat Donald Trump in next month's election. Trump's response is familiar. "They are phony polls put out by phony media and I'll tell you what all of us are affected by this stuff and what they do they try and suppress the vote that way people don't go out and vote but we're winning this race. I really believe we are winning" But, from time to time, polls show Trump doing better. Some news media report there's a close race, and Trump can claim he'll be the eventual winner. So how's a prospective voter to know how the election is really going? Is political polling an art or a science? We talk to some leading practitioners about how they come up with numbers that can influence the ultimate outcome — whether they're right or wrong.
To the Point
Drama and Comedy in the Race for the White House In their first prime-time debate last night, ten candidates for next year's Republican presidential nomination were pummeled with challenging questions. One columnist called it less a debate than an interrogation. The result was both entertainment and substance, displaying agreement on some familiar issues but revealing divisions on others. Front-runner Donald Trump refused to pledge loyalty to the party, which could have major consequences for his continued leadership down the line. We hear how the other candidates jockeyed to take over first place if his chances appear to be fading.
To the Point
The GOP and the Lessons of Last Year's Election Barack Obama's second victory showed Republicans that the nation is changing, and that's led to an agonizing reappraisal. They're agreed on the need to reach out to Hispanics, women, blacks and Asians, but are divided on how that should be done. Rethinking core policies could alienate one or more party factions. Re-writing election rules could look like rigging the system. Will the emphasis change on immigration, big business, foreign policy and social issues? Will they look to the states, rather than Washington?
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To the Point
Terrorism and tweets, hate speech and murder Just days before an election, Britain is coping with a rash of deadly terrorism, and Prime Minister Theresa May is on the defensive. And again today, President Trump has tweeted criticism of the Mayor of London. Later, a double murder in Portland, Oregon has revealed the ugly past of a supposedly “progressive” city. One immediate question: is “hate speech” protected by the First Amendment?
To the Point
What is Trump's plan for Middle East peace? On his first foreign tour, President Trump has promised "peace" between Israel and the Palestinians. Are there any details for re-starting talks that have been stalled for the past three years?
To the Point
Ex-FBI Director Comey tells his side of the story Today, former FBI Director James Comey came close to calling the President who fired him a liar. The White House denied the claim and called it insulting, but Republican Senators did not challenge Comey’s truthfulness. Many questions remain: did the President try to obstruct a federal investigation? Later, we’ll go behind the “velvet rope” for a look at 5-Star health care for the richest Americans.
To the Point
Trump plays scolder-in-chief with NATO allies At the opening of NATO’s dramatic new headquarters in Brussels today, President Trump acknowledged that Article 5 — promising that “an attack on one nation is an attack on all” -- has only been invoked one time: in the aftermath of September 11. But the President failed to provide what 27 other Alliance members have been waiting for: a re-commitment by America’s new leader to Article 5. Instead, they got a scolding.