Listen Live
Donate
 on air
Schedule

KCRW

Read & Explore

  • News
  • Entertainment
  • Food
  • Culture
  • Events

Listen

  • Live Radio
  • Music
  • Podcasts
  • Full Schedule

Information

  • About
  • Careers
  • Help / FAQ
  • Newsletters
  • Contact

Support

  • Become a Member
  • Become a VIP
  • Ways to Give
  • Shop
  • Member Perks

Become a Member

Donate to KCRW to support this cultural hub for music discovery, in-depth journalism, community storytelling, and free events. You'll become a KCRW Member and get a year of exclusive benefits.

DonateGive Monthly

Copyright 2025 KCRW. All rights reserved.

Report a Bug|Privacy Policy|Terms of Service|
Cookie Policy
|FCC Public Files

Back to Freakonomics Radio

Freakonomics Radio

Can We Stop Predicting the Future?

It's impossible to predict the future, but we can’t help ourselves. With misses that go unpunished, we’ve been trained to ignore the record of those who make predictions.

  • Share
KCRW placeholderBy Stephen J. Dubner • Jul 10, 2011 • 1 min read

It's impossible to predict the future, but humans can't help themselves. From the economy to the presidency to the Super Bowl, educated and intelligent people promise insight yet repeatedly fail by wide margins. These misses go unpunished, both publicly and in our brains, which have become trained to ignore the record of those who make predictions. In this hour, we dream of the day when the accuracy rate of pundits appears next to their faces on TV, and when the weather man who botched the 10-day forecast by 20 degrees has to make his next appearance soaking wet. We also look at the deep roots of divining what tomorrow brings, from religion to new understandings of how we make these decisions. Finally, we look at the kings of prediction – those who risk modeling the future and make millions.

  • KCRW placeholder

    Stephen J. Dubner

    Host, Freakonomics Radio

    Culture
Back to Freakonomics Radio