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    Freakonomics Radio

    Can We Stop Predicting the Future?

    It's impossible to predict the future, but we can’t help ourselves. With misses that go unpunished, we’ve been trained to ignore the record of those who make predictions.

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    KCRW placeholderBy Stephen J. Dubner • Jul 10, 2011 • 1 min read

    It's impossible to predict the future, but humans can't help themselves. From the economy to the presidency to the Super Bowl, educated and intelligent people promise insight yet repeatedly fail by wide margins. These misses go unpunished, both publicly and in our brains, which have become trained to ignore the record of those who make predictions. In this hour, we dream of the day when the accuracy rate of pundits appears next to their faces on TV, and when the weather man who botched the 10-day forecast by 20 degrees has to make his next appearance soaking wet. We also look at the deep roots of divining what tomorrow brings, from religion to new understandings of how we make these decisions. Finally, we look at the kings of prediction – those who risk modeling the future and make millions.

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      Stephen J. Dubner

      Host, Freakonomics Radio

      Culture
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