Press Play with Madeleine Brand
Avoiding a fourth COVID wave in California depends on speed of vaccination effort, says UC Berkeley doctor
“We should not be relaxing the restrictions, because this is exactly what we did last summer and look what happened. This is going to be a race between how quickly we can vaccinate as many people as we can, versus how quickly these variants are spreading," says Dr. Lee Riley.
By Madeleine Brand • • 10m ListenLA County is planning to lift more restrictions on businesses and fully enter orange tier status next Monday, April 5.
When it comes to vaccinations, around 30% of Californians have gotten at least one shot so far. That number is about to dramatically expand as the state opens up vaccination eligibility to people ages 50 and older on April 1, and then all adults on April 15.
Will California be able to avoid the fourth wave of coronavirus cases seen nationwide? CDC director Rochelle Walensky says COVID-19 cases overall are up about 10% nationwide compared to last week, and big increases are happening in Michigan, New York and New Jersey.
Dodging a fourth wave might depend on the speed of vaccination efforts in Southern California, according to Dr. Lee Riley, professor and chair of the Division of Infectious Disease and Vaccinology at UC Berkeley School of Public Health.
“We should not be relaxing the restrictions, because this is exactly what we did last summer and look what happened,” Riley says. “This is going to be a race between how quickly we can vaccinate as many people as we can, versus how quickly these variants are spreading.”
He points out that despite early hiccups in vaccine distribution in California, the state should be able to pull off a widespread vaccination effort once appointments open up to a larger demographic.
Riley estimates that by early May, the process should be streamlined, and by July the state might be able to achieve herd immunity.
