Are the Democrats This Year's October Surprise?

"Strategists and consultants of both parties now believe the House is lost and Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi will become speaker. At best, Republicans will cling to control of the Senate by a single seat, two at most." That's from conservative columnist Fred Barnes of the Weekly Standard, quoted today in ABC's political website The Note. Democrats are so optimistic that Pelosi is already talking about which office she'll use as House Speaker. But President Bush and Carl Rove are reportedly full of confidence, both publicly and in private. Will the mid-term elections be a referendum on the President himself, Iraq and scandals in Congress? Can Republicans change the subject to local issues? What about money, organization and the partisan gerrymandering of district boundaries?