Prop 16 would reinstate affirmative action in California. Is it more likely to pass or fail?

Prop 16 would amend the California Constitution to allow race, ethnicity, sex, color and national origin to be considered when making decisions about accepting students to public universities (such as UC San Diego, pictured), awarding state government contracts, and hiring state government workers. Photo by UC San Diego Jacobs School of Engineering (CC BY 2.0)

Affirmative action in the state of California ended with the passage of Proposition 209 in 1996. But this November, voters will have the opportunity to repeal that decision with Prop 16.

The arguments for and against Prop 16 are the same ones typically made about affirmative action. Opponents say it’s reverse discrimination and that no one should get special treatment. Supporters say it’s necessary to even the playing field for women and people of color.