With the vote-counting almost over in Iraq's national election, challenger Ayad Allawi is slightly ahead of the current Prime Minister. Will Nouri al-Maliki give up power without a fight? Both men are Shiites, but Allawi's support comes largely from Sunnis. Al-Maliki claims fraud and says if there's not a manual recount, there could be violence. The electoral commission has refused. Brian Katulis is a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress.