Georgetown University / Brookings Institution
Paul Pillar is a non-resident senior fellow and former Director of Graduate Studies at Georgetown University's Center for Security Studies, and a nonresident senior fellow in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution. A 28-year veteran US intelligence officer, including as National Intelligence Officer for the Near East and South Asia at the CIA, he is the author of Intelligence and US Foreign Policy: Iraq, 9/11, and Misguided Reform.
Will Donald Trump make peace with US intelligence? The last time Donald Trump had a full-fledged news conference, he urged Russia to find and reveal more of Hillary Clinton's emails. That was in July. Now he's in an unprecedented public battle with all 17 US intelligence agencies, accusing them of "a political witch hunt." He denies Vladimir Putin helped him defeat Clinton -- alarming Republicans as well as Democrats about future Russian relations. How serious is Putin's meddling in US politics? Will Trump's own financial ties to America's powerful antagonist be a risk to national security?
The Return of the Jihadi and Rethinking Our Failed War on Terror “The US has begun to mobilize a broad coalition of allies behind potential American military action in Syria.” That’s according to today’s New York Times, which reports that the intended target is the ultra-extremist Islamic State, which now holds much of Iraq and an entire province in Syria. The US is planning airstrikes in Syria—not targeting the Assad regime, but the Islamic State, considered a terrorist threat to American interests.
The Islamic State Has Oil and Momentum… How Far Will It Go? The Islamic State controls so much of Iraq and Syria it’s able to finance its self-styled “caliphate” by selling oil. It’s a real threat to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad—complicating US efforts to help so-called “moderates.” What is the Islamic State? Does it pose a threat beyond Syria and its civil war? After 3 years, 170,000 casualties and 9 million refugees, Syria’s civil war has become bloodier than ever. Last week, 700 died in one battle between the government of Bashar al-Assad and the Islamic State. The object was control of a natural gas field near Homs.
Ukraine and Crimea: The Fallout Continues In yesterday's speech to Russia's ruling elite, Vladimir Putin said , according to this translation, "Don't believe those who scare you with Russia, who yell that Crimea will be followed by other regions." He said he did not intend to further divide Ukraine, but that annexing Crimea is part of re-unifying what he calls "historical Russia." Despite international outrage, it looks like a done deal. So far, Russia is feeling no pain from economic sanctions, but the US and Europe plan three steps of escalation starting tomorrow. How much economic damage will the West have to absorb in order to make a difference? Might Ukraine be better off without a restive Crimea? What will a confrontation with Russia mean for US policy toward Syria and Iran?
John Brennan, the CIA and National Security John Brennan has been named to succeed David Petraeus as head of the CIA. Will the agency focus on gathering intelligence—its original mission—or continue launching drones for targeted killings? Will Brennan’s close relationship to the President enhance the CIA’s role in the conduct of foreign policy?
John Brennan, the CIA and National Security John Brennan has been named to succeed David Petraeus as head of the CIA. Will the agency focus on gathering intelligence—its original mission—or continue launching drones for targeted killings? Will Brennan’s close relationship to the President enhance the CIA’s role in the conduct of foreign policy?
The FBI, the CIA and Now, the Pentagon Defense Secretary Leon Panetta says one of the women associated with former CIA Director David Petraeus exchanged tens of thousands of pages of e-mails with General John Allen, Commander of US and NATO troops in Afghanistan, nominated to be Commander of NATO in Europe. At the White House briefing today, press secretary Jay Carney expressed the President's admiration for the job Allen had done in Afghanistan, acknowledging that "at the request of the Secretary of Defense, the President has put on hold General Allen's nomination as Supreme Allied Commander Europe pending the investigation of General Allen's conduct by the Department of Defense IG." Is the nation at risk? Is it really about the hubris of powerful men, designing women and Washington politics?
The FBI, the CIA and Now, the Pentagon The latest figure caught up in the Petraeus scandal is General John Allen , current Commander of US and NATO troops in Afghanistan. The Pentagon says he exchanged tens of thousands of pages of e-mail with one of the women caught up in the FBI’s Petraeus investigation. (Jill Kelley, a socialite friend of David and Holly Petraeus, told the FBI she’d been getting threatening emails. The FBI traced them to Petraeus biographer Paula Broadwell and discovered that she and Petraeus had an affair. Petraeus resigned as Director of the CIA.) Have national security or military effectiveness been compromised? Is there a cover-up of the CIA’s role in Benghazi, or are routine cases of high-level hanky-panky being magnified by the politics of exposure?
Petraeus Goes to the CIA, Panetta to the Pentagon There's been a major shift of familiar figures in the Obama security team. When Defense Secretary Robert Gates, a holdover from the Bush Administration, decided to call it quits, President Obama had a problem. He's decided to solve it by moving CIA Director Leon Panetta to the Pentagon and General David Petraeus to the CIA. Petraeus became America's favorite military leader after the successful troop "surge" in Iraq. President Obama gave him command of the war in Afghanistan. But the shakeup goes beyond those jobs.
Al Qaeda and the Challenge of People Power Pakistan's only Christian cabinet member was under threat of death for opposing laws against "insulting" Islam. He was murdered today in Islamabad. In Yemen a radical cleric, once a mentor of Osama bin Laden, has rallied crowds with calls for establishing Islamic rule. But the actual toppling of Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak was accomplished in 18 days by mostly peaceful protesters for whom Islam appeared to be only an afterthought. What does that mean for the power of al Qaeda and other extremists in the Muslim world?
Al Qaeda and the Challenge of People Power Pakistan's only Christian cabinet member, who was under threat of death for opposing laws against "insulting" Islam, was murdered today in Islamabad. In Yemen, a radical cleric, once a mentor of Osama bin Laden, has rallied crowds with calls for establishing Islamic rule. But the actual toppling of Hosni Mubarak, a goal of al Qaeda for the past 20 years, was accomplished in 18 days by mostly peaceful protesters for whom Islam appeared to be only an afterthought. No violence. No calls for jihad. Surprisingly little anti-Americanism, given US support for Egypt's President over the years. Has America mis-read the Muslim world? The promises of free speech and jobs seem to have more street appeal than radical Islam, and the "War on Terror" looks like a strategic mistake. What does that mean for the power of extremists in the Muslim world? Are they waiting to seize the moment in case promised reforms aren't allowed to happen?
The Politics of Security and Terrorism Terminal C at Newark's Liberty International Airport was shut down for several hours last night after a man reportedly walked through the wrong side of a checkpoint. Passengers on aircraft that had not taken off were sent back to the terminal. And today intense new screening has been put into effect for all citizens of 14 nations, including Yemen, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
Security in the Skies and Politics in Washington President Obama now says the man who tried to bring down a US airplane on Christmas day was " trained, equipped and directed " by al Qaeda in Yemen. Several embassies there have been shut down, and new restrictions are now in effect for citizens of Yemen and 13 other countries who are flying to the US. The Administration says there was no "smoking gun" that could have prevented the would-be bomber from boarding the plane, but criticism continues. We hear about new measures to protect travelers as the Obama Administration responds to charges that it's weak on security.
Trump plays scolder-in-chief with NATO allies At the opening of NATO’s dramatic new headquarters in Brussels today, President Trump acknowledged that Article 5 — promising that “an attack on one nation is an attack on all” -- has only been invoked one time: in the aftermath of September 11. But the President failed to provide what 27 other Alliance members have been waiting for: a re-commitment by America’s new leader to Article 5. Instead, they got a scolding.
Ex-FBI Director Comey tells his side of the story Today, former FBI Director James Comey came close to calling the President who fired him a liar. The White House denied the claim and called it insulting, but Republican Senators did not challenge Comey’s truthfulness. Many questions remain: did the President try to obstruct a federal investigation? Later, we’ll go behind the “velvet rope” for a look at 5-Star health care for the richest Americans.
Who's to blame for the opioid crisis? Some of the lawyers who took on Big Tobacco are now going after Big Pharma. It’s all about the deadly epidemic of opioid use. Are the drug companies to blame? What about the users? Later, on today’s Talking Point: making sense of Britain’s upset election.
Terrorism and tweets, hate speech and murder Just days before an election, Britain is coping with a rash of deadly terrorism, and Prime Minister Theresa May is on the defensive. And again today, President Trump has tweeted criticism of the Mayor of London. Later, a double murder in Portland, Oregon has revealed the ugly past of a supposedly “progressive” city. One immediate question: is “hate speech” protected by the First Amendment?