George Mason University
Presidential Historian at George Mason University and editor of its History News Network; author of Presidential Ambition: How the Presidents Gained Power, Kept Power and Got Things Done, Just How Stupid Are We: Facing the Truth About the American Voter and How Our Stone-Age Brain Gets in the Way of Smart Politics
Confused by political polling? You're not alone. On the average, national polls show that Hillary Clinton will likely defeat Donald Trump in next month's election. Trump's response is familiar. "They are phony polls put out by phony media and I'll tell you what all of us are affected by this stuff and what they do they try and suppress the vote that way people don't go out and vote but we're winning this race. I really believe we are winning" But, from time to time, polls show Trump doing better. Some news media report there's a close race, and Trump can claim he'll be the eventual winner. So how's a prospective voter to know how the election is really going? Is political polling an art or a science? We talk to some leading practitioners about how they come up with numbers that can influence the ultimate outcome — whether they're right or wrong.
Sizing Up Obama's Second Term High ratings in public opinion polls helped President Obama weather financial crises, withstand relentless Republican opposition and win re-election. Now, his ratings are dropping. The disastrous roll-out of healthcare.gov and his own misleading promise that people who liked their health insurance policies could keep them when the Affordable Care Act was implemented are obvious reasons. Critics see inexperience and bad management. Even supporters – including more than a dozen Democratic Senators who spent two hours with the President this week venting frustrations -- say he's failed to communicate well with the public. Two of them complained in public about "a crisis of confidence." Does the President have time to restore his image and pursue his agenda before being overtaken by the inevitable "lame duck" status of a second term?
South Carolina, Florida and the State of the Union President Bush will deliver his last State of the Union address tonight, trying to be heard over the din of the presidential campaigns . With his approval ratings down in the thirties and the Democrats running Congress, we get a preview of what he plans for his final year in office. Also, after South Carolina , are the Democrats any closer to deciding their nominee? Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have won two states apiece. Next Tuesday, they'll face off in 22 primaries and caucuses around the country. We hear from both campaigns. Will Ted Kennedy's endorsement make a big difference? On the Republican side, tomorrow's Florida primary has become a nasty confrontation between McCain and Romney . Can Giuliani survive?
The Democrats and Prospects for Change While Democratic victories are creating a host of expectations about the next Congress, especially when it comes to Iraq, President Bush says his replacement for Donald Rumsfeld will bring a "new perspective" on Iraq. Meantime, the old, Republican Congress still has work to do, not least of which is the passage of spending bills to keep the government going. President Bush also wants warrantless wiretaps, an energy bill and nuclear technology for India. We hear about his chances and look at the options for changing the course in Iraq, including "regional diplomacy" with Syria and Iran. We look at the options and what might be expected from the Secretary of Defense-designate, Robert Gates . What about diplomacy with Syria and Iran?
The Trump agenda: where's the beef? President Trump says big things are happening. After celebrating a House bill on health care, he doesn’t yet have Senate agreement. With James Comey’s public testimony scheduled tomorrow, the President today tweeted his selection of a new FBI Director. Is the Chief Executive all style and no substance? Later, terror attacks in Iran and conflicting claims about who’s behind them.
Replacing Obamacare: Now you see it… now you don’t As the Senate deliberates replacing Obmacare, health coverage for millions of people is at stake. There've been no public hearings, and a draft measure won't be made public. Is the House version so unpopular that that Senate is hiding a version that looks much the same?
How was the trip? President Trump's travels got less fun as he went from the Middle East to Europe.
Trump plays scolder-in-chief with NATO allies At the opening of NATO’s dramatic new headquarters in Brussels today, President Trump acknowledged that Article 5 — promising that “an attack on one nation is an attack on all” -- has only been invoked one time: in the aftermath of September 11. But the President failed to provide what 27 other Alliance members have been waiting for: a re-commitment by America’s new leader to Article 5. Instead, they got a scolding.