How likely will Senate convict Trump when his impeachment trial starts next month?

Hundreds of people gather in front of the Iowa State Capitol in Des Moines calling for the impeachment of Donald Trump. The former president’s impeachment trial is scheduled for February 2021. Photo by Phil Roeder (CC BY 2.0).

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will deliver the article of impeachment against former President Donald Trump to the Senate today. He’s charged with one crime: inciting an insurrection. He encouraged his supporters to storm the Capitol building earlier this month.

The trial won’t start for another two weeks — under a deal struck between Senate Democrats and Republicans. A South Carolina elections and ethics attorney named Butch Bowers will represent Trump.

Meanwhile, Senators Josh Hawley of Missouri and Ted Cruz of Texas are facing possible ethics investigations into their objections to the results of the 2020 election. Seven Democratic senators filed a complaint last week with the Senate Ethics Committee.

Also over the weekend, reports said Republican Scott Perry of Pennsylvania may have played a key role in Trump’s plan to oust Jeffrey A. Rosen, the acting attorney general who was not sympathetic to the former president’s false claims that the election was stolen from him. The plan was to replace him with another Justice Department official who was potentially willing to go along with it.

Today, the Supreme Court dismissed a case over whether former President Trump violated the emoluments clause of the Constitution. This clause says presidents can’t receive gifts or profit from foreign or domestic governments while in office.

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