Latino Decisions / UCLA
Co-founder of the polling firm Latino Decisions and Professor of Chicano/a Studies and Political Science at UCLA; co-author of Latino America: How America’s Most Dynamic Population Is Poised to Transform the Politics of the Nation; former professor of political science at the University of Washington;
The Polling Conundrum Several polls released before the California primary suggested Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton were in a tight race, but those polls were off -- way off. What happened?
The Potential Power of Latinos in 2016 After President Obama's re-election four years ago, the Republican National Committee officially declared its intention to reach out to the growing Latino electorate. Four years later, a record 27 million Latinos are eligible — a 40% increase since 2008 – and both parties are vying for their support. But there's no such thing as the "Hispanic Vote." They're divided by religion, country of origin, economic class--and generation. There are liberals and conservatives. But one issue is uniting them as never before: Immigration — creating a special challenge for the Republicans, and not just because of Donald Trump. Will that increase their dismal rate of turnout in states where Latino votes could make a difference?
The GOP and the Road to the White House Three freshman Senators are already campaigning for next year's Republican presidential nomination — but they won't be lonely. Nine others are likely to compete against Rand Paul of Kentucky, Ted Cruz from Texas -- and now, Florida's Marco Rubio . Yesterday, when Rubio announced his run for the Republican presidential nomination, he didn't mention Jeb Bush or Hillary Clinton — by name. He didn't have to. "This election is a generational choice about what kind of country we will be. Just yesterday a leader from yesterday began a campaign for president by promising to take us back to yesterday. Yesterday is over" We hear where they differ so far and how each might play with Latino Voters, moderates, mega-donors — and the base of the Republican Party.
Latinos Voters May Be Key in States Outside Southwest Polls have shown that the so-called “Latino vote” is really divided between the Mexican-American, Puerto Rican, Salvadoran-American and Cuban-American votes. But, partly because of disputes about immigration, their voting patterns are more the same than they used to be. Latinos who see themselves as united could have surprising influence as soon as next Tuesday’s election. In Colorado, Latino influence on a close race for the US Senate is taken for granted. But there are growing numbers of Latino voters in the Red States of Georgia and Kansas and in Swing States, including Iowa and North Carolina. Professor Matt Barretto at the University of Washington is co-founder of the polling firm Latino Decisions and co-author of the new book, Latino America : How America’s Most Dynamic Population Is Poised to Transform the Politics of the Nation.
Will Obama’s Immigration Reform Delay Pay Off… and For Whom? Less than three months ago, in a speech from the Rose Garden, President Obama made a promise about immigration reform, stating "I’m beginning a new effort to fix as much of our immigration system as I can on my own, without Congress." Then came tens of thousands of Central American children to America’s southern borders. This past weekend, Obama said the following on NBC's Meet The Press: “The truth of the matter is that the politics did shift midsummer because of that problem. I want to spend some time, even as we’re getting all our ducks in a row for the executive action, I also want to make sure that the public understands why we’re doing this, why it’s the right thing for the American people, why it’s the right thing for the American economy.” The underlying message is that promised executive action on immigration reform will now be postponed until after the mid-term elections.
Border Crisis Scrambles the Politics of Immigration House Speaker John Boehner said today that Republicans will introduce legislation making it easer to deport Central American children. The goal is to pass it before leaving Washington for the August recess. Meantime, the Obama White House is hinting that the President plans some kind of executive action. Laura Meckler writes about politics and immigration for the Wall Street Journal…
Will the Senate Make History with Immigration Reform? Early this morning, the so-called "Gang of 8" Senators from both political parties released an 800-page proposal that could lead to comprehensive immigration reform. Authors include Democrat Charles Schumer, Republicans John McCain and Lindsay Graham and, perhaps most important of all, the tea-party favorite, Republican Marco Rubio. Will a political compromise lead to historic legislation? Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4
Latino Voters and the GOP The Republican Party is dominated by white voters, especially those over 60, people who are uneasy about the rapid demographic changes in the US. Former Republican Party chairman Mel Martinez told a forum yesterday that the GOP risks being " relegated to a minority party " because of its failure to reach out to the growing number of Hispanic voters. At the same event, GOP consultant Ana Navarro said, "Where his [Romney] numbers are right now, we should be pressing the panic button." Last night a prime-time spot went to New Mexico Governor Susanna Martinez, who told the delegates how she changed from being a Democrat to being a Republican. Matt Barreto is with the polling firm Latino Decisions .
The US Supreme Court: Immigration and Politics The US Supreme Court won't release its ruling on Obamacare until Thursday. Today, the Court gave the Obama Administration a partial victory today by ruling that most of Arizona's tough immigration law violates the Constitution. But the controversial "show your papers" provision was left standing. Does that give police a green light for racial profiling? Decisions also came down on money in politics and life without parole for juveniles.
The US Supreme Court: Immigration and Politics Score one for the Obama Administration today as the US Supreme Court ruled that most of Arizona's tough immigration law violated federal authority. It won't be a crime for undocumented workers to look for jobs or fail to register. Is it illegal to demand that suspects "show their papers?" That's still up in the air. And that means the immigration battle is still under way in Arizona and other states.
The Supreme Court Takes Up Arizona's Immigration Law Arizona's notorious law targeting illegal immigrants goes under the legal microscope in the nation's highest court today. At issue is the power of the federal government over states' rights and whether the law encroaches on federal authority over immigration policy. Arizona sparked a huge national debate two years ago when it took immigration into its own hands, passing the controversial law known as SB 1070. Several other states followed suit with laws of their own, legal challenges were filed, and now four parts of the law are under consideration by the Supreme Court . How will this case affect similar laws in other states? What impact will a court ruling have in an election year? At a time when immigration from Mexico has fallen sharply, is there even a need for such laws?
America Looks in the Mirror with 2010 Census Data The official Census of the United States happens every ten years. Results from the 2010 Census are now coming in, and they reveal a great deal about America's population and how it's changing. Will the growth of so-called "minorities" produce a "white identity crisis" or will future generations construct a “post-racial" America? How will demographics affect politics?
2010 Census: How Do We Look Now and in the Future? The official Census of the United States happens every ten years and, even though annual estimates keep demographers updated, it's a chance for the rest of us to check the mirror and see what we look like. Results from the 2010 Census indicate that the white population has grown in the US, but not as fast as Latinos and Asians. In less than 40 years, whites won't be the majority any more. The Latino growth is a function of birthrate, not immigration. Blacks are still about 12 percent, and they're moving back to the South and out to the suburbs. What will these revelations mean politically? How will they impact the makeup of Congress and President Obama's chances for re-election?
Californians Negative on Government and Economy In this year's race for Governor, "California voters are looking for a game-changer [and] they don't see one." They like the candidates for the US Senate , but not the most controversial measures on the November ballot. Those are among the findings of the latest survey of voters by the California Public Policy Institute. In their first debate , Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman disagreed strongly on the issue of a path to citizenship for the 12 million illegal aliens who live and work in this country. Today, Whitman said she'd be willing to take a polygraph on charges that she knowingly employed an undocumented housekeeper for nine years and then fired her when the housekeeper asked for help in changing her status. Yesterday, Nicky Diaz Santillan appeared at a news conference with LA attorney Gloria Allred. Whitman claims the news conference was a smear orchestrated by the Brown campaign, which denies any involvement.
Is the threat from Russia missing from the Russia meddling probe? There's much being made about the Trump administration's possible ties with Russia. But the bottom line is Russia's effort to influence American democracy. Do the President and his aides care enough to take action before voters go back to the polls?
The longest US war: Will Trump send more troops to Afghanistan? The Trump White House is divided over the Pentagon's request for more troops in Afghanistan—where the US has been fighting for the past 16 years. Is there a formula -- either for "victory" or a political settlement? Is there an end in sight for America's longest war?
Will the Senate write a healthcare bill in secret? While Democrats and Republicans argue White House relations with Russia, another question is being decided behind closed doors: who gets help buying health insurance and who doesn't? We hear how the pros and cons are being shrouded in secrecy.
What happens when America retreats from the world? Is President Trump taking his "America First" agenda to extremes, withdrawing the country from the international stage on trade and climate change, distancing America from its traditional allies across the Atlantic and even threatening to physically isolate the country through the building of a wall along its southern border? León Krauze guest hosts.