FROM Harry Enten
Georgia 6th District special election headed to June runoff Tom Price gave up his congressional seat in the Atlanta suburbs to become President Trump’s Secretary of Health and Human services. Yesterday, a 30-year-old novice Democrat, Jon Ossoff , got 48% of the primary vote to replace him. But there will be a runoff against Republican Karen Handel , formerly Georgia’s Secretary of State. Harry Enten is senior political writer and analyst for 538 , a polling aggregation website and blog.
Confused by political polling? You're not alone. On the average, national polls show that Hillary Clinton will likely defeat Donald Trump in next month's election. Trump's response is familiar. "They are phony polls put out by phony media and I'll tell you what all of us are affected by this stuff and what they do they try and suppress the vote that way people don't go out and vote but we're winning this race. I really believe we are winning" But, from time to time, polls show Trump doing better. Some news media report there's a close race, and Trump can claim he'll be the eventual winner. So how's a prospective voter to know how the election is really going? Is political polling an art or a science? We talk to some leading practitioners about how they come up with numbers that can influence the ultimate outcome — whether they're right or wrong.
Donald Trump: Conspiracy theories and the 'war against women' Republicans have always sneered when Democrats claim they're conducting a "war against women." Now Donald Trump has inspired a war between women Republicans. Some are so offended by reports of his sexual aggressiveness they no longer support him. Others say that's old news, timed by the media to do maximum damage, and they're still backing their Party's nominee for the White House. With women constituting a majority of American voters, it's a dispute with consequences for the future of the GOP. One veteran consultant is already brand-testing names for a new conservative Party.
Bernie Sanders' Math and Media Problems Counts of delegates chosen so far for the Democratic convention tell the story of this year's campaign: Hillary Clinton has won the nomination. Yet Bernie Sanders insists there's another story. "Now if you turn on the media, and you turn on the TV. They kind of tell you that the campaign is over, that Secretary Clinton has won. Well, apparently the people of Indiana and West Virginia didn't get the message." And, despite the math, some media watchdogs think Sanders has a case to make. Photo: Gage Skidmore
Truth, Promises and Public Opinion Nine candidates made it to prime time last night in Las Vegas, chosen again by their standing in public opinion polls. Donald Trump made the biggest news, saying he loves the GOP after all and promising not to stage a third-party rebellion. The theme was national security and all nine played variations on the anger of the conservative base and the fear caused by attacks on Paris and San Bernardino. Fact checkers are working overtime and debate continues over whether the polls reflect public opinion — or shape it.
Replacing Obamacare: Now you see it… now you don’t As the Senate deliberates replacing Obmacare, health coverage for millions of people is at stake. There've been no public hearings, and a draft measure won't be made public. Is the House version so unpopular that that Senate is hiding a version that looks much the same?
Terrorism and tweets, hate speech and murder Just days before an election, Britain is coping with a rash of deadly terrorism, and Prime Minister Theresa May is on the defensive. And again today, President Trump has tweeted criticism of the Mayor of London. Later, a double murder in Portland, Oregon has revealed the ugly past of a supposedly “progressive” city. One immediate question: is “hate speech” protected by the First Amendment?
Trump plays scolder-in-chief with NATO allies At the opening of NATO’s dramatic new headquarters in Brussels today, President Trump acknowledged that Article 5 — promising that “an attack on one nation is an attack on all” -- has only been invoked one time: in the aftermath of September 11. But the President failed to provide what 27 other Alliance members have been waiting for: a re-commitment by America’s new leader to Article 5. Instead, they got a scolding.
Is the threat from Russia missing from the Russia meddling probe? There's much being made about the Trump administration's possible ties with Russia. But the bottom line is Russia's effort to influence American democracy. Do the President and his aides care enough to take action before voters go back to the polls?