University of Virginia Center for Politics
Founder-Director of the Center for Politics and Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia; Editor in Chief of Sabato's Crystal Ball; author of A More Perfect Constitution: 23 Proposals to Revitalize Our Constitution and Make America a Fairer Country, Pendulum Swing, about the midterm elections, and The Kennedy Half-Century: The Presidency, Assassination, and Lasting Legacy of John F. Kennedy
The Bernie Sanders Phenomenon: How Long Will It Last? Less than 15 months ago, Democratic Socialist Bernie Sanders made a 10-minute announcement to a few reporters and hustled back into the Senate. Since then, millions have felt "the Bern," massive crowds have turned out, and Sanders has gotten enough votes to seriously contend for the Democratic nomination. Now he wants to define the issues and change the rules at this summer's convention. Will his supporters hold their noses and vote for Hillary Clinton? Can the campaign that came out of nowhere really become a "movement?"
Can a Cruz-Kasich Partnership Stop Trump? For Ted Cruz and John Kasich, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend." Donald Trump is looking like a big winner tomorrow in several Northeastern states. So Ted Cruz and John Kasich are joining forces by agreeing to divide their resources in Indiana, New Mexico and Oregon. Photos of Ted Cruz and John Kasich by Gage Skidmore Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Editor in Chief of Sabato's Crystal Ball, has more on how the Kasich and Cruz are joining forces against Trump.
Recapping Virginia’s McDonnell Corruption Trial Jury deliberations got under way today in the case of The United States of America vs. Robert F. McDonnell and Maureen G. McDonnell—the first couple of the Commonwealth of Virginia until January of this year—now in the dock charged with trading the power of the Governor’s office for $177,000 in luxury gifts and loans. One political science professor who’s attended the trial every day says, “They had been the most publicly affectionate first couple I’d seen in 30 years.” Now their defense against federal corruption charges depends on persuading a jury of 7 men and 5 women that their marriage was so dysfunctional they could not possibly have conspired to violate the public trust. Larry Sabato is Director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
VA. Ex-Governor’s Trial Begins The Washington Post points out that, until January, Robert McDonnell held the same office once occupied by Thomas Jefferson and Patrick Henry. But McDonnell’s the first Governor of Virginia to be charged with a crime. He and his wife Maureen face 14 charges of public corruption and lying on financial documents. Larry Sabato is Director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
Results Are In and It's Time for Reading Political Tea Leaves Yesterday in New Jersey, Republican Governor Chris Christie won a massive victory, including the votes of traditional Democrats. In Virginia, Democrat Terry McCauliffe was barely elected Governor, but that made political history in a presidential swing state. In Alabama, Bradley Byrne and mainstream GOP money defeated Tea Party candidate Dean Young in a Republican congressional primary. In New York City, Bill de Blasio became the first Democrat elected Mayor of that liberal city in more than two decades. The elections produced some evidence of political change and a lot of speculation. What are the lessons for both parties and the potential consequences for the Obama agenda?
Day Three of the Government Shutdown On Day Three of the government shutdown, moderate Republicans are showing signs of anger at Tea-Party colleagues who are adamant about using the government shutdown to accomplish their goals. We’ll hear where they come from and what they want.
Campaign Strategy and Science The Presidential election is close. Mitt Romney makes a speech; Barack Obama appears on a talk show, a super PAC saturates the airwaves with an ad... For the most part President Obama's advantage in swing states is within the pollsters' margins of errors. Conventional wisdom would have the candidates blanketing those states with ads, perhaps swinging by Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio for speeches and local media interviews. But there is work done quietly and away from the cameras, strategy having to do with statistics, and surveys and mailings that are often overlooked, but perhaps even more vital than the splashy mass-broadcast electioneering. Micro targeting number crunchers are experimenting with elections in fascinating ways. It’s this little noticed statistical detective work that is driving many of campaigns decisions and will be the key factor in actually convincing people to vote.
Campaign Strategy and Science The Presidential election is close. Mitt Romney makes a speech; Barack Obama appears on a talk show, a super PAC saturates the airwaves with an ad... For the most part President Obama's advantage in swing states is within the pollsters' margins of errors. Conventional wisdom would have the candidates blanketing those states with ads, perhaps swinging by Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio for speeches and local media interviews. But there is work done quietly and away from the cameras, strategy having to do with statistics, and surveys and mailings that are often overlooked, but perhaps even more vital than the splashy mass-broadcast electioneering. Micro targeting number crunchers are experimenting with elections in fascinating ways. It’s this little noticed statistical detective work that is driving many of campaigns decisions and will be the key factor in actually convincing people to vote.
Troubling Signs for Both Parties in Yesterday's Elections There were no real surprises in election results last night, but there were some surprises in the margins of the vote. In Indiana, State Treasurer Richard Mourdock was expected to beat incumbent Senator Richard Lugar , who valued cooperation over confrontation, but not by 20 points. In North Carolina, Amendment One banning gay marriage and civil unions was expected to pass, but not by twenty points. We hear more about yesterday's results from Karen Tumulty national political correspondent for the Washington Post , and Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
Troubling Signs for Both Parties in Yesterday's Elections There were no real surprises in election results last night, but there were some surprises in the margins of the vote. In Indiana, State Treasurer Richard Mourdock was expected to beat incumbent Senator Richard Lugar , who valued cooperation over confrontation, but not by 20 points. In North Carolina, Amendment One banning gay marriage and civil unions was expected to pass, but not by twenty points. We hear more about yesterday's results from Karen Tumulty national political correspondent for the Washington Post , and Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
The High Cost of Going Negative in the GOP Campaign Mitt Romney out spent Newt Gingirch by five to one in Florida, with an unprecedented avalanche of personal attack ads. Romney says Gingrich can't "whine" [his word] after going negative in South Carolina, and he promises that the campaign will have a happy ending for Republicans. Romney's big win in Florida earned him Secret Service protection, but Gingrich, Santorum and Paul are not conceding anything yet. We look at a nasty campaign and a divided Republican party.
The High Cost of Going Negative in the GOP Campaign Newt Gingrich didn't make the traditional courtesy call to Mitt Romney after last night's defeat in Florida, and the message is clear: Romney's massive onslaught of TV attack ads has left the Republican Party more divided than ever, with Gingrich still leading in the national polls. As the battle heats up, Rick Santorum has hope of being the last candidate standing, and Ron Paul shows no signs of quitting. They're all on their way to Nevada, a state staggered by unemployment and home foreclosures, where Republicans will caucus on Saturday. Can they all go on until the August convention? Are they damaging the Republican cause or honing the ultimate challenge to President Obama ?
Rick Perry in Damage Control Mode During debates with other Republican presidential candidates, Texas Governor Rick Perry has been plagued by verbal gaffes and other mistakes. Last night in Michigan, it got worse than ever, when Perry said that, as President, he would eliminate three federal departments – but then blanked and couldn't name the third. Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, recalls other memorable gaffes and their impact on other political races.
Has Obama Taken a Combative New Turn? With a veto threat and new challenges to Republicans, President Obama has switched from reasoned compromise to partisan confrontation . What does it mean for this year’s legislation and next year's campaign? How does it look to Ron Suskind, author of the latest White House expose ? We hear from him and others.
Is There a New Man in the White House? "Scrappy," "combative," and "confrontational" are words being applied to Barack Obama after yesterday's speech on reducing the deficit. He's no more the compromiser seeking a "grand bargain," with new proposals that are "the mirror image of the priorities espoused by House Republicans." The Obama White House says, "It's fair to say we've entered a new phase." We hear how his strategy has changed, how both parties are reacting on Capitol Hill and how next year's re-election campaign might be affected. We talk with author Ron Suskind, whose latest book reports that Obama's top advisors ignored him and took over the White House during his first two years.
President Obama Chides Republicans At today's White House news conference , President Obama said that to reduce the deficit, he'll make spending cuts that hurt his political base. He chided Republicans for their reluctance to increase taxes on the rich. The President said failing to raise the debt limit by August 2 will force choices between paying interest on bonds or social security and veterans' benefits. He also talked about Libya, Afghanistan and infrastructure rebuilding to jump- start the economy. We hear excerpts from his first White House press conference in three months.
Human Rights in the era of Donald Trump President Trump’s UN Ambassador, Nikki Haley, said today the US might pull out of the United Nations’ Human Rights Council. Serious violators of human rights are members of the Council itself–and a US resignation could make things worse. Later on today’s show, now that he’s into his second term, comedian turned US Senator Al Franken is telling jokes again.
Who's to blame for the opioid crisis? Some of the lawyers who took on Big Tobacco are now going after Big Pharma. It’s all about the deadly epidemic of opioid use. Are the drug companies to blame? What about the users? Later, on today’s Talking Point: making sense of Britain’s upset election.
Is the threat from Russia missing from the Russia meddling probe? There's much being made about the Trump administration's possible ties with Russia. But the bottom line is Russia's effort to influence American democracy. Do the President and his aides care enough to take action before voters go back to the polls?
